Reading focus
Syllabus: Why Are Suicidal Thoughts and Actions Difficult to Explain and Predict?
Distinguish simultaneous covariation from prediction of the next report after accounting for the current one.
Why you’re reading it. Examine why the temporal resolution of evidence must match the explanatory question.
A question to consider. How could a factor distinguish people over years yet fail to anticipate changes over hours? Give a measurement explanation and a substantive explanation.
Why this reading
Repeated measurements reveal changes that a single retrospective average cannot show. These two studies separate fluctuation and simultaneous covariation from the harder task of anticipating the next change.
Before you read
Ecological momentary assessment collects repeated reports during daily life. Between-person differences and within-person changes answer different questions. A lagged association links an earlier measurement to a later one.
Read for
- Compare concurrent associations with forecasts that account for the preceding ideation score.
- Notice differences between the community and inpatient samples, incomplete responses and the intervals between measurements.
Consider afterwards
- Why might two people with the same average score have very different time patterns?
- How could missed reports during distress affect the observed pattern?
Editorial context
The samples were small and selected; no attempts were reported during monitoring, so the study did not test prediction of attempts. Brief measures approximate complex constructs. Observed fluctuations neither establish their causes nor validate a real-time decision tool.